The African Development Bank (AfDB) Group has warned that Africa’s trade finance gap could surpass $100 billion if geopolitical tensions and global trade disruptions continue.

The cautionary projection is contained in the AfDB’s fifth Trade Finance Report, presented during the 2026 Annual Meetings in Brazzaville.

The report notes that Africa’s unmet trade finance demand ranged from $74 billion to $92 billion in 2024, representing approximately 5.4% of the continent’s total merchandise trade. Despite global economic shocks, higher oil and fertilizer prices, and renewed geopolitical instability, African financial institutions continued to support trade activities.

However, weaker currencies and tighter correspondent banking conditions could widen the trade finance gap to $86.6 billion–$102.6 billion by 2027, Between 2020 and 2024, commercial banks intermediated just 23% of Africa’s total trade down from 40% recorded between 2011 and 2019, highlighting that a substantial portion of African trade remains underserved.

The report also highlighted progress in intra-African trade, with bank-intermediated intra-regional trade rising to 34% between 2020 and 2024, up from 18% before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Among the major constraints, 36% of surveyed banks cited foreign exchange liquidity shortages as the primary obstacle to expanding trade finance. Additionally, digital trade finance adoption remains low, with only 28% of banks using digital platforms  hampered by high implementation costs and weak technological infrastructure.

Development finance institutions, including the AfDB, facilitated about $32 billion in trade finance annually between 2020 and 2024, helping narrow the trade finance gap. Regional commercial banks are increasingly taking on roles as correspondent and confirming banks, sustaining trade flows even during crises.