Nigeria’s headline inflation rate fell to 15.43 per cent in July 2026, but rising food prices are creating a mixed economic picture, economist and public policy analyst Prof. Ken Ife has said.
Ife made the observation in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) in Abuja on Sunday while reacting to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
According to the NBS, headline inflation dropped by 0.48 percentage points, from 15.91 per cent in June to 15.43 per cent in July.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, also declined to 14.97 per cent during the month.
Food inflation tells a different story
Despite the decline in headline inflation, food prices recorded a sharp increase on a month-on-month basis.
The NBS reported that food inflation rose to 5.56 per cent in July, compared with 3.75 per cent in June.
On a year-on-year basis, however, food inflation declined from 26.20 per cent in July 2025 to 20.31 per cent in July 2026.
Ife described the figures as a paradox, saying the moderation in overall inflation was occurring alongside renewed pressure on food prices.
Energy and exchange rate stability helped
The economist attributed the decline in headline inflation partly to lower energy prices and relative stability in the foreign exchange market.
He said average energy prices fell by about 2.3 per cent during the period, while the naira exchange rate remained relatively stable.
Ife also noted that there was no increase in electricity tariffs during July, while movements in petrol prices contributed to changes in the overall inflation rate.
According to him, the situation was different in the food sector, where higher farm-gate prices and the rising cost of imported processed food continued to exert pressure on consumers.
Supply chain costs push food prices higher
Ife said disruptions across the food supply chain were contributing to rising prices.
He pointed to higher maritime insurance and shipping costs as factors affecting imported food and other commodities.
Farm-gate food prices increased by 4.66 per cent month-on-month, while the broader food index, which includes imported food, rose by 5.56 per cent.
The economist said the gap showed how supply and distribution costs were increasingly affecting food prices.
Transport costs widen urban-rural inflation gap
The latest inflation figures also showed a significant difference between urban and rural inflation.
According to the NBS data cited by Ife, urban inflation stood at 16.12 per cent year-on-year in July, compared with 13.77 per cent in rural areas.
Ife said the disparity highlighted the role of transportation in determining food prices, particularly because agricultural products must be moved from rural communities to urban markets.
He stressed that the cost of transporting food from farms to major consumption centres remained an important factor in Nigeria’s inflationary pressures.
Adamawa inflation raises concern
Ife expressed particular concern over the inflation figures recorded in Adamawa State.
The state recorded the highest year-on-year headline inflation rate at 33.03 per cent, while its month-on-month inflation stood at 12.48 per cent.
Food inflation in Adamawa was even higher, reaching 51.36 per cent year-on-year, significantly above the national food inflation rate of 20.31 per cent.
Ife described the situation as an “alarm bell”, calling for a closer examination of the factors responsible for the unusually high inflation rate in the state.
He said the situation was particularly troubling because the figures came during the harvest season, when food supply would ordinarily be expected to improve.
Economist calls for urgent intervention
The economist urged authorities to take immediate steps to increase food supply and protect consumers from further price increases.
He suggested that strategic grain reserves could be released to areas experiencing severe food-price pressures.
Ife also recommended emergency interventions in locations where flooding or other disruptions may be affecting agricultural production and food distribution.
He said addressing food supply constraints would be essential to ensuring that the decline in headline inflation translates into meaningful relief for Nigerian households.
