Nigeria could lose more than $1 billion in annual export earnings if farmers and exporters fail to meet the European Union’s new deforestation requirements, the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC) has warned.
The warning comes as the December 30, 2026, compliance deadline approaches for large and medium-sized businesses supplying affected products to the European market.
NEPC Regional Coordinator Benedict Hegbe raised the concern on Tuesday, October 13, during a stakeholders’ seminar in Lagos.
The meeting focused on the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) and Nigeria’s National Single Window (NSW), a digital platform intended to simplify international trade procedures.
Hegbe said exporters must act quickly to protect their businesses, particularly in agricultural sectors that depend heavily on European buyers.
Why Nigeria’s Exports Are at Risk
Under the new EU rules, businesses placing certain agricultural commodities and related products on the European market must show that they were produced legally and are not linked to recent deforestation.
The regulation covers seven major commodities: cocoa, coffee, cattle, oil palm, rubber, soya and wood, alongside specified products derived from them.
For Nigerian exporters, this means buyers may demand more detailed information about where crops were produced, whether the land was cleared after the EU’s deforestation cut-off date and whether the products meet applicable legal requirements.
Shipments that cannot be adequately traced or verified could lose access to the EU market.
Hegbe warned that the financial consequences could be significant, given the importance of agricultural commodities to Nigeria’s non-oil export earnings.
The estimated $1 billion represents potential annual revenue at risk rather than money Nigeria has already lost.
Cocoa Exporters Face the Greatest Pressure
Nigeria’s cocoa industry is among the sectors most exposed to the new requirements.
The European Union is a major destination for Nigerian cocoa beans and processed cocoa products, making continued market access especially important for farmers, traders and exporters.
European Commission trade data show that the EU imported €1.68 billion worth of agricultural and food products from Nigeria in 2024.
Of that amount, approximately €1.49 billion came from the combined coffee, tea, cocoa and spices category, which was dominated by cocoa-related trade.
The figures highlight the importance of these exports to Nigeria’s trade relationship with Europe.
Hegbe expressed particular concern about the slow pace of cocoa farm mapping.
According to the NEPC official, only about half of an estimated 350,000 smallholder cocoa plots had been geolocated.
This could create difficulties for exporters that must provide European buyers with reliable evidence of where their products originated.
Farm Mapping Could Determine Market Access
One of the most important requirements under the EUDR is traceability.
Exporters need records that allow their European customers to trace relevant commodities to the land on which they were produced.
For cocoa farmers, this may involve recording farm coordinates, checking land-use history and linking harvested cocoa to verified farms throughout the supply chain.
The process becomes more difficult when produce from several small farms is mixed by middlemen before reaching exporters.
Without dependable tracking systems, even cocoa produced on land that meets the environmental requirements may be difficult to sell to European buyers.
Hegbe therefore urged farmers, cooperatives, commodity traders and exporters to work together to improve documentation and farm identification.
He also encouraged exporters to make use of Nigeria’s developing agricultural traceability arrangements.
EU Deforestation Rules Take Effect in December
The European Union has scheduled the main EUDR requirements to apply from December 30, 2026, for large and medium-sized operators.
Most micro and small operators have until June 30, 2027.
However, certain smaller timber-sector operators remain subject to the earlier date, while responsibility for compliance depends on each business’s role in the supply chain.
Under the regulation, relevant goods must generally be traceable to land that has not been deforested after December 31, 2020.
Businesses must also be able to demonstrate compliance with applicable production laws.
Although the legal obligations fall primarily on operators placing products on the EU market, Nigerian suppliers will need to provide the information their European customers require.
Hegbe advised exporters to check the specific product classifications covered by the regulation rather than assume that every product containing cocoa, rubber, wood or palm oil is treated identically.
Nigeria Customs Plans Digital Export Processing
Another issue discussed at the Lagos seminar was the expansion of Nigeria’s National Single Window platform.
Assistant Comptroller Oyama Ekok-Oyama, Chief Examiner at the Lilypond Export Command of the Nigeria Customs Service, said the export component of the platform was expected to become operational in November 2026.
The National Single Window is intended to reduce paperwork by allowing traders to process information and documentation through a central electronic system.
Ekok-Oyama said the development would make export procedures more efficient and improve regulatory coordination.
He encouraged exporters to strengthen their record-keeping and prepare for the transition to digital processing.
However, the National Single Window and the EU’s deforestation compliance system serve different purposes.
The Nigerian platform is designed to simplify trade administration, while EUDR compliance requires separate proof relating to production, traceability and deforestation.
Nigeria Steps Up Efforts to Meet EU Requirements
The latest warning follows earlier Federal Government efforts to prepare the country’s agricultural export sector for the European regulation.
In October 2024, the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security established a national task force to coordinate Nigeria’s response.
The government subsequently introduced a national compliance strategy and announced plans to use satellite mapping and digital traceability systems to monitor agricultural supply chains.
In November 2025, Agriculture Minister Abubakar Kyari disclosed that a government assessment had identified more than $1 billion in annual export earnings at risk if Nigeria failed to adapt.
The ministry also announced cooperation with the National Space Research and Development Agency (NASRDA) to support farmland mapping and deforestation monitoring.
Despite these efforts, exporters continue to face difficulties obtaining complete farm records and covering the cost of verification.
An August 2026 Reuters investigation found that some major Nigerian cocoa exporters were spending between $30 and $80 per tonne on farm mapping and traceability work.
NEPC Urges Farmers and Exporters to Act Early
Hegbe said compliance would require cooperation across the agricultural value chain, from individual farmers to exporters supplying international buyers.
He encouraged businesses to verify the status of their products, improve farm-level documentation and address gaps before the deadlines take effect.
Ekok-Oyama also emphasised the role of the Nigeria Customs Service in supporting lawful trade and improving the integrity of export procedures.
The officials warned that delays could weaken Nigeria’s competitiveness at a time when international buyers are placing greater emphasis on sustainable sourcing.
For cocoa farmers and other affected producers, the challenge is not simply to avoid deforestation but also to provide dependable records showing that their products meet the rules.
With the first major EUDR deadline approaching, the effectiveness of farm mapping, traceability and export documentation will be important in determining whether Nigerian businesses can retain their European customers.
