Nigeria recorded a sharp increase in deaths linked to insecurity in October, even as the number of reported security incidents declined, according to a new report by the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD-West Africa).
The organisation’s October 2026 Nigeria Election Security Tracker showed that 640 people were killed during the month, representing a 61.62 per cent increase from the 396 deaths recorded in September.
The report, published on November 9, also documented a rise in election-related incidents, warning of growing threats to political participation ahead of the 2027 general elections.
CDD said the total number of security incidents fell by 22.07 per cent, from 222 in September to 173 in October. However, the decline in incidents did not translate into fewer casualties, as the average number of deaths per incident increased from 1.78 to 3.70.
Broader insecurity accounts for 638 deaths
The report attributed 638 of the 640 fatalities to broader insecurity, while two deaths were linked to attacks involving political campaigns.
The North-East recorded the highest death toll, with 409 fatalities from community attacks, insurgent violence and military operations. The region recorded 35 security incidents during the month.
CDD highlighted the attack on Binnari community in Taraba State, where 62 people were reportedly killed and thousands displaced. It said homes and shops were also destroyed, leaving affected families without shelter and sources of livelihood.
Across the country, attacks on people accounted for 75 incidents and 269 deaths. Armed clashes caused 144 fatalities, while explosions and airstrikes accounted for another 135 deaths.
The North-West and North-Central zones jointly recorded 110 incidents, representing 63.58 per cent of the national total. The North-Central accounted for 62 incidents, while the North-West recorded 48.
Election-related violence rises ahead of 2027 polls
While broader insecurity incidents declined, election-related cases increased from 14 in September to 16 in October, a 14.29 per cent rise.
CDD said 11 of the 16 incidents involved attacks on campaign gatherings and convoys. Other cases included assaults on individuals, attacks on political property and restrictions on political gatherings.
Two of the incidents resulted in deaths during activities involving the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) in Enugu and Ebonyi states.
In Enugu, Ifeanyi Nwolie died from a gunshot wound sustained during violence surrounding the party’s campaign launch on October 10. The incident was followed by public disagreement over reports of a fatality, with the Enugu State Government initially denying that anyone had died. Subsequent reports confirmed Nwolie’s death.
In Ebonyi, gunmen attacked the convoy of NDC House of Assembly candidate Rollins Offia-Nwali on October 22. One person was killed, three others were injured and the candidate’s vehicle was burnt. Police confirmed the attack and said the candidate escaped.
The tracker also documented attacks on political supporters and campaign activities involving other parties, including the APC, ADC and PDP.
Plateau records highest incidents among four monitored states
The report identified the North-West and North-Central as the regions with the largest combined number of security incidents.
Among the four states specifically monitored by CDD’s Election Security and Resilience Project – Plateau, Katsina, Benue and Kaduna – Plateau recorded the highest number, with 24 incidents.
Katsina followed with 12, while Benue recorded 10 and Kaduna seven. The four states accounted for 53 incidents, or 30.64 per cent of the national total.
CDD noted that insecurity in these areas could affect electoral preparations and voter participation, particularly where attacks, abductions and unsafe roads prevent residents from accessing voter services or reaching polling centres.
Misinformation and hate speech remain concerns
The tracker recorded 75 misinformation, disinformation and hate speech narratives in October, down 28.57 per cent from 105 in September.
Of the narratives identified, 37 were classified as false, 31 as misleading and two involved religious threats and hostility. The organisation said available evidence was insufficient to confirm or disprove five other claims.
The report identified fabricated electoral notices, false campaign claims, altered images and misleading security information among the content circulating online.
It also highlighted the use of AI-generated images and recycled videos to create false impressions about political figures, campaign support and security developments.
CDD warned that such material could deepen political tensions, weaken trust in electoral institutions and make it harder for voters to distinguish genuine announcements from fabricated information.
CDD outlines measures to protect election participation
The organisation called on security agencies and state governments to strengthen protection for political gatherings and the routes used by supporters travelling to campaign events.
It urged police commands to investigate attacks, protect witnesses and injured victims, and prosecute suspects where evidence supports charges.
CDD also called for measures to protect communities affected by repeated attacks and assist displaced residents in accessing voter registration services and polling centres.
On information integrity, it urged the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to publish clear, dated electoral notices, explain corrections to the voter register and respond promptly to fabricated information.
The organisation said ensuring safe political activities and access to credible electoral information would be critical to protecting participation and electoral integrity as Nigeria approaches the 2027 general elections.
