The Nigerian Institute for Oceanography and Marine Research (NIOMR) has raised concerns over rising temperatures in Lagos, warning that rapid urban development and the disappearance of green spaces are making the city increasingly uncomfortable for residents.
Dr Edward Akinnigbagbe, Assistant Director and Acting Head of the Department of Marine Meteorology and Climate at NIOMR, said the growing concentration of buildings, roads, vehicles and electricity generators was contributing to the city’s worsening heat conditions.
Speaking during an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, Akinnigbagbe explained that the way Lagos has expanded over the years is intensifying the effects of global climate change.
Why Lagos Is Becoming Hotter
According to the climate scientist, the widespread replacement of vegetation, wetlands and open land with concrete buildings and asphalt roads has significantly changed how Lagos absorbs and releases heat.
He explained that these surfaces absorb substantial amounts of solar energy during the day and release it gradually after sunset, keeping many neighbourhoods warm even at night.
The phenomenon, commonly described as the urban heat island effect, occurs when heavily developed areas become warmer than surrounding locations with more vegetation.
Akinnigbagbe also identified vehicle traffic, generator emissions and declining tree cover as additional contributors to heat exposure across the city.
He said urban planning decisions had made Lagos particularly vulnerable because many developed areas lack sufficient shade and natural ventilation.
Study Links Lagos Temperature Rise to Urban Growth
Referring to a satellite-based study published in the scientific journal Scientific Reports in 2022, Akinnigbagbe said both urbanisation and global climate change had contributed to increasing land-surface temperatures in Lagos.
He cited findings estimating that urban development contributed approximately 0.985°C per decade to rising daytime land-surface temperatures, compared with about 0.44°C per decade attributed to broader climate change.
The figures suggest that changes in land use have played a substantial role in the warming of the city’s surfaces.
However, land-surface temperature measures how hot the ground and other exposed surfaces become. It is different from the air temperature recorded in conventional weather forecasts.
The researcher explained that although global warming increases the overall temperature baseline, local construction patterns can intensify heat conditions within the city.
Poor Building Designs Trap Heat Inside Homes
Akinnigbagbe also expressed concern about housing designs that prevent effective airflow and increase indoor temperatures.
He identified corrugated metal roofing, tightly packed buildings, high perimeter walls and small windows as features that can make homes particularly uncomfortable during hot weather.
Such structures may absorb and retain heat while limiting the movement of cooler air through living spaces.
He noted that unreliable electricity supplies further compound the problem, particularly for households that depend on electric fans and other cooling equipment.
For residents who cannot afford air conditioning, prolonged indoor heat can become a daily challenge, especially when temperatures remain high after sunset.
Loss of Trees Reduces Natural Cooling in Lagos
The NIOMR scientist stressed that vegetation plays an important role in regulating temperatures in urban environments.
Trees provide shade and release moisture into the atmosphere through a process known as transpiration, helping to reduce heat around buildings, roads and public spaces.
He warned that continued destruction of green areas would weaken these natural cooling mechanisms.
Akinnigbagbe therefore called for stronger protection of existing vegetation and the inclusion of more trees in future urban development projects.
He said greener neighbourhoods, shaded walkways and open public spaces could help reduce residents’ exposure to excessive heat.
Outdoor Workers Face Greater Heat Risks
The expert identified traders, transport workers and other people who spend long hours outdoors as particularly vulnerable to rising temperatures.
He explained that workers in markets, motor parks and other exposed locations often have limited access to shade and adequate cooling facilities.
Lagos’ humid conditions can also make heat more difficult to tolerate because moisture in the air slows the evaporation of sweat, reducing the body’s natural cooling efficiency.
Akinnigbagbe warned that people exposed to high temperatures throughout the day might struggle to recover if their homes remained hot overnight.
Repeated exposure without adequate rest, hydration and cooling could increase the risk of heat-related illness.
El Niño and Climate Change Add to Heat Concerns
Akinnigbagbe also discussed the potential influence of El Niño, a climate phenomenon associated with unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
He explained that El Niño can affect atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns, although its effects differ between regions and seasons.
The NAN report cited an August 13, 2026 seasonal climate update from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), which reportedly identified a strong El Niño event expected to influence weather patterns between August and October.
The scientist noted that changing rainfall conditions could contribute to heat challenges in coastal areas, depending on local weather patterns.
He also raised concerns about possible future temperature increases, citing scenarios of 42°C by 2030, 44°C by 2050 and 46°C by 2070.
These figures should be treated as attributed projections rather than confirmed forecasts for specific years, since their underlying modelling assumptions were not supplied in the interview.
Aproko Doctor Raises Concern Over Heat-Related Deaths
The NIOMR warning comes amid growing public discussion about the health consequences of extreme temperatures in Nigeria.
Nigerian medical communicator Chinonso Fidelis Egemba, popularly known as Aproko Doctor, recently drew attention to the dangers of prolonged heat exposure.
In a widely circulated video, Egemba referred to research projecting 31,400 additional heat-related deaths in Nigeria between September 2026 and February 2027.
The figure represents a reported research projection, not a verified count of deaths. The original study and its assumptions would need to be examined before presenting the estimate as an established scientific forecast.
Egemba encouraged Nigerians to pay closer attention to vulnerable groups, particularly older people, infants and individuals with underlying medical conditions.
He also urged people working outdoors to drink water regularly, seek shade and reduce unnecessary exposure during periods of intense heat.
NIOMR Recommends Greener Buildings and Better Urban Planning
To reduce the impact of rising temperatures, Akinnigbagbe recommended a combination of environmental protection and improved building practices.
He called for wider tree planting, preservation of existing green spaces and greater use of roofing materials designed to reflect sunlight rather than absorb excessive heat.
The scientist also encouraged improved ventilation in residential buildings and the development of shaded public facilities.
For households without air conditioning, he advised residents to improve airflow where possible and avoid spending extended periods under direct sunlight during the hottest hours.
He maintained that Lagos must incorporate heat reduction into its urban development policies as the city continues to expand.
The warning highlights the need for coordinated action on land use, housing design and environmental protection to reduce heat exposure and safeguard public health.
