President Bola Ahmed Tinubu may be gradually positioning himself for a second term in office, following a fresh political projection that puts him ahead of his major rivals, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi, in the 2027 presidential election.
The projection by the Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng gives Tinubu 20 states, compared with nine states for Atiku and eight for Obi, if the presidential election were conducted under the political circumstances prevailing at the moment.
The analysis which was made public by Mr Lai Omotola, the publisher of
Publisher, The Politico.ng stated that the country is heading towards the most tough and well contested election come 2027.
According to Omotola, although the forecast is not a prediction of the final election result, it offers an indication of the political terrain confronting the opposition and, more importantly, highlights the potential route through which the incumbent president could secure re-election.
Tinubu’s biggest advantage may be that he does not have to build his political structure from scratch. As the incumbent president and leader of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), he enters the 2027 contest with access to an established nationwide party structure and the advantages that come with incumbency.
The South-West Could Provide the Foundation:
One of the clearest reasons Tinubu could emerge victorious is his projected dominance of the South-West.
PIG projects the president to win all six states in the region, including Lagos, where he suffered an unexpected defeat to Peter Obi in the 2023 presidential election.
A return of Lagos to Tinubu’s column would be particularly significant:
Lagos is not only Nigeria’s most populous state but also the political base from which Tinubu built much of his political career. His influence in the state and the wider South-West gives him a potentially formidable electoral foundation before the battle moves to other regions.
If Tinubu succeeds in consolidating the South-West while making substantial gains in the North, he could establish the kind of national spread required to defeat a divided opposition.
The Kano Factor:
Perhaps the most important element of the projection is the inclusion of Kano among the states expected to go to Tinubu.
Kano is one of Nigeria’s largest electoral territories and has historically played an important role in determining presidential elections.
A Tinubu victory in Kano would mean that the president’s support is not confined to his traditional South-West political base.
It would also demonstrate the potential effectiveness of his strategy of building a broader political coalition across regional lines.
In a presidential election where victory depends on both the national vote and constitutional requirements concerning geographical spread, the ability of an incumbent to combine strong South-West support with significant northern backing could prove decisive.
Incumbency and Political Structure
Tinubu also has another advantage that should not be underestimated: time and political machinery.
The president has an entire administration through which his policies, programmes and achievements can be presented to voters before the election.
The APC, as the governing party, also has elected officials, political structures and networks across the country.
That does not automatically translate into electoral victory, but it gives the president an organisational advantage over opposition candidates who may still have to resolve questions concerning alliances, party structures and the distribution of political influence.
The 2027 contest could therefore become as much a battle of political organisation as it is a contest of personalities.
The Economy: Tinubu’s Biggest Risk and Opportunity:
If Tinubu is to turn the current projection into an actual victory, however, the economy could be the decisive factor.
The removal of fuel subsidy, inflation, transportation costs, food prices, unemployment and household purchasing power have created significant pressure on Nigerians.
These issues could become the central battlefield of the 2027 election.
But the same economic reforms that create political risks for Tinubu could also provide him with an opportunity.
If the administration succeeds in demonstrating measurable improvement in the economy before the election—particularly through lower inflation, improved purchasing power, increased employment, infrastructure development and greater economic stability—the president could argue that the difficult policies implemented during his first term were necessary foundations for long-term recovery.
The political question will therefore be whether voters in 2027 judge the administration primarily by the hardship experienced during the reform period or by the economic conditions existing at the time they cast their ballots.
Why the Opposition Faces a Difficult Equation:
The projection also exposes a major challenge confronting the opposition.
Atiku is projected to win nine states while Obi is projected to win eight. Individually, both remain significant political forces, but their combined strength could become complicated if they contest separately.
The possibility of opposition cooperation or a broader coalition could therefore be one of the most important variables in the 2027 election.
If Atiku and Obi, or the political forces behind them, remain divided, Tinubu could benefit from a split opposition vote.
In a first-past-the-post electoral environment, an incumbent does not necessarily need overwhelming popularity in every region. He needs an effective coalition capable of producing the required spread of votes across the federation.
That is potentially the most important lesson from the current projection.
Atiku’s Northern Strength Could Still Matter:
Atiku remains a formidable political figure, particularly because of his established northern political network and experience in presidential contests.
PIG projects him to win nine states, including Kaduna and states in the North-East and North-West.
His campaign could also seek to capitalise on economic hardship, particularly the high cost of transportation and living.
His position on fuel subsidy could become an important campaign issue if petrol prices and transportation costs remain major concerns for voters.
But Atiku’s challenge will be converting northern strength into a genuinely nationwide coalition.
To defeat an incumbent with substantial support in the South-West and other parts of the country, he would need significant gains outside his strongest areas.
Obi’s Challenge: Expanding Beyond 2023:
Peter Obi presents a different challenge to Tinubu.
His strong performance in the 2023 presidential election established him as a major political force and gave him a substantial following among voters seeking political change.
PIG projects him to win eight states and the Federal Capital Territory.
However, the central question for Obi heading into 2027 is whether he can transform the enthusiasm surrounding his political movement into a sufficiently broad nationwide electoral coalition.
Winning additional states beyond his established areas of strength would be critical.
The emergence of new alliances, defections and party arrangements could determine whether Obi is able to expand his electoral map or whether his support remains concentrated in particular regions and demographic groups.
Tinubu’s Possible Route to 2027 Victory:
The current projection suggests a relatively straightforward political calculation for Tinubu.
First, he must consolidate the South-West.
Second, he must retain or expand his support in the North.
Third, he must prevent the opposition from developing a sufficiently broad coalition around a single candidate.
Fourth, his administration must demonstrate by 2027 that its economic reforms are producing tangible benefits for ordinary Nigerians.
Finally, the APC must maintain internal cohesion and effectively mobilise its political structures across the country.
If these elements come together, Tinubu could enter the 2027 election with a coalition broad enough to overcome the combined challenge of Atiku and Obi.
But the Election Is Far From Decided:
The 20-state projection should therefore be seen as a snapshot of the current political landscape rather than a declaration of what will happen in 2027.
Economic conditions may improve or worsen. Political alliances may be created. Candidates may defect. New political movements may emerge. Running mates could alter the calculations, while regional, religious and ethnic considerations may influence voting patterns.
Most importantly, voters could ultimately decide the election based on their assessment of their economic circumstances and the performance of the government in the months immediately preceding the election.
For now, however, the numbers provide an important advantage for the incumbent.
With 20 states projected for Tinubu against nine for Atiku and eight for Obi, the president currently appears to have the clearest electoral pathway to victory.
The real battle between now and 2027, therefore, may not simply be about whether Tinubu can win—but whether his opponents can unite sufficiently, expand their geographical reach and persuade Nigerians that they offer a more compelling alternative.
If the current political structure remains substantially unchanged, Tinubu’s combination of incumbency, APC’s nationwide machinery, projected South-West dominance, potential northern gains and a divided opposition could make him the candidate to beat in 2027.
