The February 25, 2023 Presidential Election has set in motion a number of actions, reactions and processes.
Some of these, we can only fully understand and appreciate in the years to come. The elections not only demonstrated Nigeria’s political dynamism but most importantly its people’s capacity to shift their support across political parties.
It also witnessed the shocking performance of the “Obidient Movement’, a political action movement which is a complex amalgamation of youth conviction and radicalism.
While the Movement definitely complicated the hitherto bifurcated political space usually dominated by two main parties – the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the All-Progressives Congress (APC), it undoubtedly creates a ‘third force’ whose performances in the last presidential election has given its followers the courage and confidence to believe that they can shake the table and spring out surprises in subsequent elections in Nigeria.
However, while the 2023 Presidential election and possibly the gubernatorial election that will follow on March 18 will make an interesting intellectual episode for political scientists and historians, I will like to articulate reasons Mr. Peter Obi, the ‘new’ kid on the block and the main beneficiary of the Movement that became known as the Obidients, may not be willing to congratulate the President-elect, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. The reasons are both psychological and existential.
Not to be in doubt, the events preceding and the outcome of the 2023 presidential election has its psychological dimensions: both on voters and politicians. Of all the candidates, arguably, Obi is confronted by the most difficult psychological dilemma. The former Governor of Anambra State and former vice -presidential candidate to Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the PDP in the 2019 election in Marxist terms committed a class suicide – breaking away from his past and forging a new or connecting to an independent political movement away from All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) that gave him political life as governor in Anambra and the PDP that made him its vice presidential candidate. He is currently leading an unusual movement in the Nigerian political landscape and he does not wish to squander his unique opportunity. He is therefore in a delicate situation that simultaneously attracts respect and sympathy. For this reason, Obi may not be willing to blink his eyes and congratulate the President-elect Asiwaju without negative consequences from his followers many of whom are yet to come to terms with their loss at the polls.
To continue to enjoy the respect of the Obidients, especially the extremist elements in the group, Obi must not show a sign of being consolatory. Indeed, Obi can only remain relevant if he can continue to hold Obidients spell bound with his non-compromising attitude and messianic personality; a personality that cannot at the moment accommodate being soft on the existing structure that his Movement has set to demolish. Logically, Obi, like any rational politician, will like to retain his frenzied supporters, including the fervent ones who strongly believe that he won the February 25 presidential election and nothing other than that would calm their nerves. To make a consolatory phone call to Asiwaju in the light of this will therefore make him look as if he has chicken out of the Movement in which he is seen and regarded and the arrow-head, especially to the radical elements in the Movement who believe that Obi won in all the states in the federation and must recover his “mandate”. As the 2023 election is a precursor to the 2027 presidential election, Obi is not likely to congratulate Tinubu who may also be going for reelection and run against Obi in four years’ time. That being the case, Obi will like to demonstrate a strong personality and continue to give leadership to the Movement while making himself the rallying point for the Movement and its future.
However, there is an unfolding dangerous dimension that I will like to conclude with. Obi’s decision not to congratulate Tinubu is not new and neither will he be the first in our democratic process. But it may be combustible as it could set in motion dangerous actions that either Obi or other political actors may not be able to control. Inadvertently, it could or may have already created – a monster that may itself destroy the many positive gains of the Obidient Movement in Nigeria’s political space. As a democratic force, the Movement remains a gentle reminder to politicians that participatory democracy in which everybody including the youths is considered to be part of a whole is very essential to the consolidation of our democratic institutions. This is commendable,
Lamentably, apart from the fact that, Obidients are very critical of opposing views and impatient with people who don’t support their views particularly, online. Freedom of association and expression which the Obidients also enjoy is one of the fundamental canons of democracy and it will be undemocratic, unfair and unjust both morally and constitutionally to attack or bully other people for expressing their views, even if you don’t agree with such views. It is unfortunate that the emergence of the Movement has generated the most toxic ethnic discourse in Nigeria’s recent history. Obviously, an unexpected outcome (because this couldn’t have been the intention of the Movement which comprises of people from different geo-political zones in the county including the Southwest) of the Obidient Movement is the emerging ethnic tension – specifically, tension between the Yorubas of the Southwest and the Igbos of the Southeast. As I noted above, this cannot be an expectation of the Movement but this regrettably, is one of the unintended outcomes in Lagos and if this trend is allowed to continue, it may affect the gains of the Obedidient Movement in future elections. Although Atiku, a northerner, also lost to Tinubu, a southern Yoruba, but there is yet to be a Yoruba-Hausa tension on the scale of Yoruba-Ibo tension that we are currently witnessing due to the mischaracterization of the Obidient Movement as an attempt by the Igbos to take over Lagos to the detriment of the Yorubas owners.
As I said above, many Yoruba youths and elites mobilised for the Obedient Movement in Lagos during the last presidential election and I believe their intention had no ethnic undertones. The history of Yoruba-Igbo tension in Lagos is not new but Obidients could either escalate this or contribute to reduce the tension. A patriotic and nationalistic movement, if properly managed and harnessed, can help to improve performance, transparency and accountability in government, instill confidence in our political system as well as strengthen our democratization process. Happily, the president-elect has offered to build a government of national unity but he cannot do it alone without the support of Obi and Atiku, both are yet to congratulate him.
While Obi may not congratulate the President-elect in the short term because of the supposed political implications and Obi’s perceived psychological dilemma, time will tell how or whether the growing zealotry in the Movement and an attempt by some people to perceive it as an Igbocentric will lead to better performance in the coming elections.
Until then, the Obidient Movement may contribute to deepening social divisions which may eventually consume it rather than building a patriotic Movement for national unity and progress.
