Last week, issues around the renewed face-off between Governor Siminalayi Fubara of Rivers State and his estranged godfather, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, dominated the media space.
The first few episodes of the Season 3 of this seemingly interminable Nigerian succession movie have been as exasperating as they’ve been comical. No one would have thought that a relationship that once looked very real might actually have been built on a foundation of deceit by either the then compulsorily submissive godson or Wike, who apparently overrated the loyalty of a favoured appointee.
Before settling for Fubara, Wike, like many other outgoing governors, would have spent sleepless nights weighing options and deleting names from a list of potential successors until there was a last man standing. The options, according to those close to the godfathers, are also subjected to what they refer to as “spiritual scrutiny”, beyond the main loyalty considerations. The capacity needed for efficiency as the Chief Executive Officer of the state is, of course, usually the least of the prerequisites.
In a bid to install this candidate, the godfather would have to fight tough battles, starting from his inner circle, especially those who lost out of the succession race, to the opposition camps who would do everything possible to resist what is perceived as a third term in disguise for the outgoing governor.
Using Rivers as a case study, Fubara was declared winner of the 2023 governorship election on March 20, after polling 302,614 votes to defeat his closest rival, Tonye Cole of the All Progressives Congress, who had 95,274 votes. That was the news because Wike could not contest a third time. But, in actual fact, Wike contested that election, Fubara’s name only appeared on the ballot!
From the battle to shield the incumbent when the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, in May 2022, declared him and four other Rivers State Government officials wanted for an alleged N117 billion fraud, to the pre-election court cases, and the political chess that ‘eliminated’ stubborn contenders, it was a “do-or-die” affair for the former governor. These battles did not win friends or more loyalists for the strong man of Rivers politics. Instead, they depleted his camp, acquired more enemies for him, and thickened the bile of existing ones.
Like many others that have assumed the godfather role in state politics, Wike’s expectation from Fubara, who might not even have known how the election that produced him as governor was won, would be nothing short of 100 per cent loyalty. After the declaration of Fubara as winner, it appeared as if Wike’s calculations were on point. At the point his anointed knelt down before him to show his gratitude, he could bet with anyone that he had crossed the greatest hurdle in his political history – installing a loyal successor.
Sadly, the ink of reports announcing Fubara as the new governor of the state had hardly dried when it became clear to political watchers that the choice of Fubara might have been a huge error of judgment on the part of the FCT Minister. While I would not want to dwell on the various phases of the face-off between the two players, the significant message here is that the centre could no longer hold even before the governor celebrated his 100 days in office!
Some said it was karma at play for Wike, while others simply lambasted Fubara for allegedly biting, in the most humiliating manner, a finger that ‘everyone’ once saw feeding him. Some top politicians even identified him (Fubara) as the aggressor playing the victim.
For me, there are no half measures where loyalty is concerned, which could make me sympathetic towards the FCT minister. But in this particular case, I see only one thing – the opportunity cost of self-serving succession battles.
While struggling to replicate what appears to be a resilient Jagaban/Lagos model, outgoing governors have mostly presented the weakest of candidates in their quest for a “Yes-Sir” loyalist that could water their appetite to hold on to power by proxy.
Perhaps if they paid more attention to the peculiarities of Lagos State, especially the absence of the kind of rigid dichotomy between the ethnic groups in many of their states, and the credentials of those deemed fit to occupy the No 1 seat in the nation’s commercial capital, outgoing governors would pay more attention to capacity than the mirage of being a puppeteer for, perhaps, a clueless puppet. It is, more often than not, a waste of time and a disservice to the electorate.
I stumbled on a September 2025 paper, titled, “The Successor’s Dilemma”, jointly authored by Mario Gilli and Lorenzo Portaluri of the University of Milano-Bicocca; and Yongjing Zhang of the University of Ottawa, and I thought it could be a note of caution for Nigerian leaders to begin to de-emphasise the do-or-die succession politics, focus on good governance and allow the best to get the job.
“Incumbent leaders appoint successors in the hope that they will continue the regime and uphold their legacy… However, impatient and powerful successors can become the predecessors’ biggest threats,” the authors stated.
Lessons from some other states where outgoing governors fought tooth and nail to install their anointed have not been too far from both this assertion and the Rivers case study. The saving grace of some godfathers has been their cabinet or other strong positions in the current All Progressives Congress administration at the centre.
Close aides of some former governors have narrated how successors that they fought everyone to install, even when they were the least qualified, had reversed almost all policies initiated by their supposed benefactors. One told me: “the only thing this fellow has not done is to bar him from entering the state”.
In the case of the FCT minister, the face-off with his successor has turned to a peculiar mess because of his dogged confrontational nature, which the incumbent, who apparently has learnt from the best, seems to have also mastered. For others, whose anointed aides are “whipping” behind-the-scenes, they prefer to lick their wounds when no one is watching to preserve what is left of their sanity and also keep followers close.
I’m sure not a few people have wondered why the first set of friends that a hand-picked successor tries to make are the same people that his godfather fought to install him. Studying the reason this is usually so would solve half of the problems of self-serving do-or-die succession battles that often leave the citizens on the receiving end.
As preparations for the 2027 elections gather momentum, therefore, outgoing state governors should reflect on what became of many once celebrated godfather-godson relationships after the supposed godsons assumed power. This important reflection would enable the creation of a good atmosphere for the best to take over the baton of leadership, in line with key stakeholders’ and public acceptance.
This applies to the corporate world as well, as captured by Marshall Goldsmith, in his book, “Succession: Are You Ready?”
Goldsmith said, “If it becomes obvious that Board members, or other key stakeholders have eventually ‘vetoed’ your favorite candidate – and that he is not going to get the job – your path is simple – start over!
“You, as the CEO, will need to ‘let go’ of your disappointment and do your best to support another potential candidate who can be approved by the Board.”
In spite of federal allocations that have increased by more than 60 per cent to Nigerian states in the last two years, and the rising internally generated revenues reportedly being recorded, standards of living have remained poor for the majority of citizens.
To worsen matters, many governors still have very laughable ideas of what real achievements entail, and this can only be linked to their levels of education or exposure as well as the absence of proper scrutiny by the electorate.
By allowing free and fair processes, enabling active participation of stakeholders in the choice of successors and focusing on good governance that can hardly be rubbished, an outgoing governor can save himself the pains associated with a godson’s betrayal, whether visible or veiled.
Once a governor exits, he must truly exit and leave his successor to enter into a performance agreement with voters, who will be the ones to remind him that “agreement is agreement!” Anything short of this spells nothing but chaos and stagnation.
*Yemi Kolapo, Publisher/Editor-in-Chief of The Point Newspapers, is the President, Media Transformation and Empowerment Initiative.
